This paper studies factors that influenced the voting behavior of 15 key swing states in the 2020 United States presidential election by linking statistical clustering methods with notable political events. In addition to key decisions made in the Trump administration, factors unique to this presidential election such as the global COVID-19 pandemic and the Black Lives Matter movement were investigated. In order to identify the most important swing states, a Swing State Index was derived using the 2012, 2016, and 2020 election outcomes. Next, hierarchical clustering was used to group the 15 swing states based on the Swing State Index, and the relationships between each cluster were attributed with events that may have factored into the cluster behavior. The most representative and significant swing states were identified to be Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (based on the clustering history) as well as Michigan and Minnesota (based on the Swing State Index). After analyzing specific events that affected these six states’ voting behavior, the Black Lives Matter movement and concerns over health care were the most significant factors in President Trump’s defeat. Next, the state of Georgia was further studied to better understand the influence of COVID-19 and the economy on the state’s voting behavior. By adjusting the ratio of the COVID-19 values (infected cases and deaths) and economic value (unemployment rate), it was found that the economy was of greater importance than COVID-19 to Georgian voters. The study of similar events by connecting political science (e.g. government decision-making) and clustering methods can be applied to future elections to better predict the outcome of important swing states and, thus, the overall election results.
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