On April 17, President Trump encouraged: “Liberate Michigan, Minnesota, and Virginia”; on April 22, the President strongly disagreed with Georgia’s State Governor that Georgia should open Businesses immediately. On April 23, Bloomberg Media posted that 2020 Presidential Election undecided voters increased from 5% to 12%. President and State Governors faced a dilemma when to reopen businesses. 15 Swing States in the 2020 Election have been identified based on 2012, 2016 election results. President Trump won the 2016 Election by 39 votes above the break-even line. Several COVID-19 Databases (Tested%, Tested Positive%, Infected Cases & Deaths/ capita 100k, Population) and Unemployment Rate of these 15 Swing States were analyzed in JMP. Original data were transformed through Formula “Col Standardize” to remove sample mean & variance biases. The “2020 COVID Risk” Index was derived per Swing State by combining COVID-19 and Jobless factors. The 2020 Election Result per each Swing State was predicted by considering previous 2012, 2016 Election Results, and “2020 COVID Risk” Index. In late April, President Trump may lose Michigan and Pennsylvania (comprising 36 Electoral Votes) and could still win the 2020 Election by a 3-vote margin. To determine Business Reopening risk, a special “Liberate Risk” Index was created by considering the dilemma of COVID-risk against Jobless-risk. Minnesota and Virginia were safer and beneficiaries to opening businesses versus Michigan and Georgia. Modeling suggests opening businesses in New Hampshire and Nevada. “Swing State” Index was created to reflect the 2012-2016-2020 Swing scenarios. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio are the top Swing States which may flip the upcoming Presidential Election. Hierarchical Dendrogram and Constellation plots were utilized to group similar Swing States under 2020 Election. The most timely Prediction will be shared in October at JMP Discovery, and has demonstrated a practical and statistical modeling framework considering social and political science factors.
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